Kenya pastoral triage

Places opening now · 2019→2024

The strongest opening reads on the tighter modern frame.

Places opening on the long arc · 2005→2024

Wards with the deepest long-memory opening signal.

Openings with stronger support

Places where the opening signal still holds up once confidence starts constraining the read.

First places to consider

Where present burden, opening direction, confidence, and workable conditions converge most strongly.

Thin-witness places you can still reach

High-need wards where witness is sparse and repeated presence still looks workable.

Thin-witness places that will take patience

High-need wards where the need is plain but the on-the-ground work looks harder to sustain.

Pressure zones still within reach

Places where burden is high and the logistics for repeated presence still look workable.

Longer temporal strengthening · 2005→2024

Wards whose broader livelihood-and-stability proxy has strengthened most across the retained observation years.

Longer temporal softening · 2005→2024

Wards whose broader backdrop has softened most across the retained observation years.

Openings reinforced by the longer backdrop

Places where Gospel Shift is opening and the temporal pattern is also strengthening rather than eroding.

Openings with a softening backdrop

Places where the opening signal is real enough to inspect, but the broader temporal backdrop is moving the other direction.

County-leading base wards

One lead base per county, so the first read stays county-aware before the biggest urban fields swallow the whole stack.

National stack, still visible

The strongest raw bases in the whole country still matter, but they sit here as a secondary read rather than the controlling frame.

Places resisting now · 2019→2024

Where the recent comparable frame looks more resistant or harder than before.

Places resisting on the long arc · 2005→2024

Where the deeper memory still trends harder rather than more open.

How a pastor should read this

Ask six questions. Is the burden high here? Is witness thin? Can we keep showing up? Is the place opening or hardening? Does the longer temporal backdrop strengthen that judgment or warn against over-reading it? And if we had to base somewhere first, which ward gives us the strongest platform into the surrounding field?

The scores are there to discipline comparison, not replace judgment. They help sort the field, not shepherd the field for you.

Recent movement is the cleaner window. Long movement is the deeper memory. The temporal panel is a separate backdrop check, built only from retained observation years actually in hand, so it can agree with Gospel Shift, complicate it, or caution it. Hub scoring is a base-selection aid, not a claim that the catchment is route-exact or security-complete.

Kenya movement is still VIIRS-anchored comparable history, not a claim that every ward input has been fully reconstructed across every year. KSPI is an observation-year proxy, not a fabricated annual series. Current hub catchments use the first-pass model centroid_haversine_radius_scaled_by_access_v1 and keep security explicitly unscored.